Nairobi - Kenya's economic prospects look more favourable
and foreign investors seem undeterred by a trial of Kenyan president and his
deputy on charges of crimes against humanity in The Hague, a senior IMF
official said on Monday.
Kenya's situation had improved from three years ago, when it
faced the impact of two consecutive droughts and the fallout from the global
financial crisis, that cause a sharp economic slowdown.
It was also coming to the end of an IMF Extended Credit
Facility programme that had provided $700m over three years.
With growth running at 5.5% this year, International
Monetary Fund Africa director Antoinette Sayeh said Kenya was in a "good
place" to issue a debut Eurobond, which the government says could raise up
to $2bn later this year.
Kenya has long wanted a Eurobond issue but initial plans to
raise $500m were shelved after nationwide violence in early 2008
following a disputed election that stunted economic growth and later because of
the global financial crisis.
Politics in Kenya has been overshadowed by the trials of
Deputy President William Ruto's, which began last week, and President Uhuru
Kenyatta, starting in November, raising fears that business confidence could be
hurt by the uncertainty.
Both men, who won an election on a joint ticket in March,
are being tried on charges of orchestrating violence after a vote more than
five years go when they were in rival camps. They deny the charges and have
pledged to co-operate with the court.
"Investors are very gung-ho on Kenya these days,"
Sayeh told reporters in Nairobi, when asked about the impact of the cases.
Good economic prospects
"Everybody is aware that there is a trial going on, yet
they are certainly continuing to see that Kenya has very good economic
prospects," she said.
Inflation was close to the government's 5% target, she
noted, and Kenya's external position had improved.
Another IMF official said the current account deficit in
2012/13 had narrowed to 8.9% of gross domestic product, from 9.4% a year
earlier, but said it would have recorded a small surplus and shown a bigger
improvement when costly imports of energy industry equipment were stripped out.
Such imports have grown with the exploration and discovery
of oil in Kenya, east Africa's biggest economy.
To fund infrastructure and retire more expensive debt, Kenya
is choosing advisers for a Eurobond, expected later this year.
Analysts say borrowing costs for emerging markets could rise
with any US move to scale back bond purchases, or quantitative easing, drawing
investors to higher yields in advanced economies.
"We don't see a major risk of large outflows from Kenya
that it will not be able to sustain," Sayeh said, adding Kenya had a
flexible exchange rate to deal with any potential outflows.