Nairobi - One month after Somalia's Shabaab fighters stormed
Kenya's Westgate shopping mall and massacred dozens of people, the threat from
regional sleeper cells or local sympathisers remains high, analysts warned.
"If you haven't learnt the lesson Westgate, more is
coming," read posters put up this week at rallies in the southern Somali
port of Barawe, a stronghold of the al-Qaeda linked militants.
"For every Muslim killed in Kismayo, Kenya will pay the
price," another read, referring to a city Kenyan troops captured last
The attack on the Nairobi mall which left 67 dead marked a
significant and worrying step up in Shabaab operations, and had required long
periods of surveillance and planning, security experts said.
Richard Dowden, head of Britain's Royal African Society, has
warned that the Westgate attack suggests Shabaab commanders have shifted from
"Somali internal politics and closer to al-Qaeda's global agenda".
Tackling the Shabaab is on two key fronts: militarily inside
Somalia where African Union troops have been battling the Islamists since 2007,
but also in the wider region, especially those countries whose armies are in
Somalia, including Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda.
Earlier this month US Assistant Secretary for African
Affairs Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the Senate Foreign Relations committee the
Westgate "attack suggests that violent extremism in the Horn of Africa may
Security remains on high alert, with the US Overseas Security
Advisory Council (OSAC) warning this week it "continues to assess reports
that a Westgate-style attack may soon occur" in Uganda's capital Kampala.
The AU force in Somalia has requested its size be boosted by
a quarter to 23 000 troops and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud urged
"total war" on the Shabaab "to deny them territory and the space
to train and plan".
Shabaab recruits across east Africa
But territorial gains inside Somalia alone will not
eliminate the Shabaab - or Islamist forces aligned to the extremists - across
the wider region.
Foreign fighters from Western or Arab nations with the Shabaab
in Somalia have gained much of the focus in recent years.
But dozens, if not hundreds, of young men from countries
across the Horn of Africa have also trained with the Shabaab inside Somalia,
according to United Nations experts.
Others are feared to have been radicalised at home.
"There are local sympathisers of the Shabaab or aligned
groups across eastern Africa, but so far their actions have been limited to
fairly low scale attacks such as throwing grenades or shooting security
forces," said a Western security source.
"The attack at Westgate was of a different scale,
requiring far more planning, funding and training. The Shebab has the
capability of sending specially trained recruits, waiting for the order to
carry out specific large scale action."
The UN monitoring group on Somalia noted in its latest
report in July the dangers posed by Kenya's Islamist Al-Hijra group, a radical
organisation formerly known as the Muslim Youth Center, linked to the Shabaab
as well as groups in neighbouring nations.
Those include Tanzania's Ansar Muslim Youth Centre, as well
as groups in Rwanda and Burundi.
Large scale attacks
"Al-Shabaab continues to pose a regional and
international threat through its affiliates," the UN report read, noting
that as AU troops have seized more territory in Somalia, there has been an
"increasing exodus" of foreign fighters, some of whom left "with
the intention of supporting jihad in the region".
Exactly who the attackers at Westgate were is not known,
whether it was a team specifically sent from Somalia or even if they were a
"home-grown" team recruited in Kenya itself.
The Shabaab have carried out large scale attacks in Somalia
and the region before, such as an attack on a UN compound in Mogadishu in June
or bombings that killed 76 in Kampala in 2010.
"More than a dramatic jump in capacity, the [Westgate]
attack shows a change in focus and motivation by al-Shabaab’s core
planners," said Devon Knudsen, of the US-based Africa Centre for Strategic
Some argue that the Westgate masterminds hoped to spark
reprisals against Somalis in the country - including both the half a million
refugees and Kenya's sizable ethnic Somali citizens -- that would radicalise
more to join the Shabaab.
The Shabaab emerged as a force in Somalia with attacks on
Ethiopian troops during its 2006 invasion of Somalia.
"Al-Shabaab’s greatest recruiting tools are revenge,
nationalism and exclusion," wrote EJ Hogendoorn of the International
He said the public claim of responsibility for Westgate was
aimed to "trigger a backlash against Somalis - and Muslims - in Kenya and
in southern Somalia".
For the Shabaab, their propaganda message at least is clear,
warning in another placard paraded on trucks loaded with heavily armed
fighters: "Westgate was just the beginning."