Lagos - A day after President Goodluck Jonathan announced his intention to contest the presidential election early next year, a global economic think-tank argued the incumbent rated him a favourite to win the poll.
A number of factors will work in favour of Jonathan, among them a fragmented opposition, Rand Merchant Bank (RMB, forecast.
On Tuesday, Jonathan announced his intention to run for a second term in the February 2015 presidential election.
“The upcoming vote has been described as one of the most closely contested in the history of Nigerian politics,” RMB stated.
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It nonetheless forecast the ruling People’s Democratic party (PDP), which Jonathan leads, to defy challenges of its own.
“The ruling party is facing major challenges, from Boko Haram and kidnappings to electricity shortages and a struggling oil price. President Jonathan’s popularity has also waned due to failure to deliver on election promises, not taking a hard-enough stance on corruption, and making unpopular decisions like cutting fuel subsidies. Regardless, a victory by the PDP seems to be the most likely outcome. The historical strength of the party, Jonathan’s incumbency and the lack of cohesion in the opposition party outweigh the negatives,” RMB stated in its latest global markets report.
Next year’s elections come amid rising terror, interparty and intraparty concerns.
Jonathan’s re-election bid had itself been met with resistance within his PDP party, culminating in some defections.
– CAJ News